Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
