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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still